Sep 27, 2012 9:00am EDT
dick morris a side on his website, most pollsters are weighing their dat toont assumption that the twift electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did but polling indicates a distant lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. so let's talk about that cnn contributor will cane ling is right and roland martin is here. why -- are you lafgt samuel l. jackson? >> oh, my gosh, sam is the man. first of all if you don't follow him on twitter, you need to.>> . first of all if you don't follow him on twitter, you need to. some people will say, oh, my god, it's the language. guess how much money r-rated films make all the time and we know his rants in "pulp fiction" and "shaft" as well w why not have shaft get people excited about voting? way to go sam. >> give me your critique of samuel l. jackson's ad? >> my film critique. rolling on a three-second delay here? i do get the same liberties that samuel l. jackson takes? >> no. >> try it. try it. >> no. >> should i try it? no. whatever. it's fine. i mean, it's funny. i think we take polit
Sep 27, 2012 6:00am PDT
to it. >> dick morris is saying, yeah, president obama maybe leading among minorities and young people but those people traditionally don't get out to vote and really not that excited about president obama anyway. so is dick morris right, will? >> dick morris has a point. first of all, i hate talking about polls and i know roland does as well, because a, i hate the idea that politicians are constantly checking polls and adjusting their message. b, i hate trying to interpret these things as though i have a crystal ball. i know this, carl, a lot of the polls coming out, heard the topic du jour this week, some think the main street polls are skewed because what they're showing is a larger democratic turnout than the historic democratic turnout in 2008. in 2008, on the cusp of an historic election, first black president to, you know, about to be elected, you had an amazing turnout among minorities and youth vote. what the polls today are showing, projecting a larger turnout than that, a little bit of a stretch, a little harder to stomach in a downed economy, so i'm very skeptical you will
Sep 24, 2012 10:00am PDT
you think dick morris is right? he says latinos increased their share by 1.5%. he says if you use that same model for this election and assume you will have the same turnouts from blacks, latinos and young kids, you will be off in your results. >> we just don't know the answer. that is, if all groups are depressed in their turnout as seems likely. the black or latino share will be about the same. young people probably will go down. they are showing less interests. but we can't say with specificity what dick is asserting. megyn: what are you supposed to do? >> both of us -- political pollsters screen and likeliness to vote, interest, intensity and where you are. we have in 2004 a split country. we had about an 8-point advantage for democrats in 2000. i can't imagine it being as good or better. if it is, republicans are going down across the board. >> we try to use a variety of different scenarios. even party, slight democratic advantage. bigger democratic advantage then look at differen different altes and advice accordingly. megyn: is there a finger on the poll? there was a hit pi
Sep 24, 2012 1:00pm EDT
pollsters. doug schoen is the former advisor to bill clinton. dick morris who was once president clinton's pollster. but he's not a fan of the clintons anymore. but he writes this long piece talking about how the republicans are getting depressed under an after land much of polling that shows president obama ahead but she you shouldn't be because the pollsters are using a variance of the 2008 polling model that he says overstates the likelihood of success. >> it could. the truth is we don't know what the turnouts of democrats and republicans will be. but would i say this. dick it right in so far as most of the media polls are using -- are optimistic for the democratic party. as a professional pollster you try to be as cautious as possible in advising your clients. but most of the polls getting released are giving president obama the benefit of the doubt. megyn: why would they do that? if it says it's -- i don't understand why any pollster would want anything hotter than the most accurate results. >> what accurate is is often open to debate. the dirty little secret of polling is with cell
Sep 26, 2012 3:00am PDT
the trend. dick morris is fox news contributor and author of screwed. dick, you believe the story is . >> i don't think the numbers are accurate. i think there is a fundmental error going on in the polling by the media organizations. not by rasmussen and it shows romney one behind in florida and one in virginia and obama gets the undecided and could be ahead. but the difference is. they are using the is 2008 turn out model. huge latino and college students and viewwer elderly . that model happened for one year only. 2008. it didn't happen in 10 or four. and they are wrong for applying it. it is true if the people who voted in 8 as in 12 obama will get elected. >> brian: does it explain the trend. they were closer even with the same science? >> well, i don't believe that, i believe what they are doing is reweighting the data. that would not establish a trend. the accurate polling which is no reason to go to the polls. go to the accurate one. rasmussen shows the race within a point or two in each of the states . by the way, the trend in rasmussen and in my own poling is that romney was doing
Sep 26, 2012 4:00pm PDT
in the key states of ohio and florida. but is that true? we have in-depth analysis from karl rove, dick morris and the governor of ohio, john kasich. >> there is no doubt that the world is in need of a new order and fresh way of thinking. >> bill: mad man of iran insulting just about everybody at the u.n.
Sep 26, 2012 7:00pm PDT
. but is that true? we have in-depth analysis from karl rove, dick morris and the governor of ohio, john kasich. >> there is no doubt that the world is in need of a new order and fresh way of thinking. >> bill: mad man of iran insulting just about everybody at the u.n.